A few months ago, Shane, Kelvin and myself, along with Carl for a little bit, found ourselves in a bach on Waiheke island. It was lovely and sunny, the beach was about 100m away, so we stayed inside all day and talked about just about everything. And of course, predicted the future.
A quick summary of our predictions, so we can check these in 2014 (these are 5 year predictions).*EDIT* It should be pointed out that… we didn’t exactly agree on all of these. I’ve indicated the ownership and agreement/disagreement *EDIT*. In no particular order:
1. Obama gets 2nd term.
2. Stagflation period in the US, ie, recession coupled with inflation (Kelvin, I didn’t know what stagflation was…).
3. Digital camera market tanks, subsumed by cellphones.
4. PC Hard drive market vanishes, subsumed by flash memory (Shane partially disagrees, argues HDs will continue in big servers etc. Greg thinks big servers will also use flash memory to save power).
5. Android (or similar open platform) dominate mobile space (Kelvins, Greg disagrees)
6. Apple licenses Mobile Mac OS to drive people to ITunes (Gregs prediction)
7. Oil > $80/barrel
8. National second term, introduces a capital gains tax on property (Gregs, Shane disagrees).
9. Xero returns to market for funding in 2009 (looking like a pretty certain bet!). CORRECT.
10. One I forgot, Apple branded PCs have share of PC market > 20%!!! (Gregs, Kelvin disagrees and Shane 50/50)
11. Michael Jackson returns with a bigger album than Thriller (Ah, Kelvin. Greg and Shane…er… well… yes. That Kelvin…) As Shane said in comments, the odds of this one happening now are… slim.
The longer range forecast includes Shanes prediction of true machine intelligence within 20 years. It might be best to hope he is wrong about that!