Comments for greg in wellington http://gregnz.wordpress.com IT comments from a wellington entrepreneur... Sun, 08 Nov 2009 01:55:25 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 Comment on predictions 2014 by Kelvin Hartnall http://gregnz.wordpress.com/2009/03/29/predictions-2014/#comment-278 Kelvin Hartnall Sun, 08 Nov 2009 01:55:25 +0000 http://gregnz.wordpress.com/?p=213#comment-278 I don't think we can conclude that the stagflation prediction has been successful. I've investigated the Wikipedia definition of stagflation: "Stagflation is an economic situation in which inflation and economic stagnation occur simultaneously and remain unchecked for a significant period of time." I assume that the transitory inflation along with the recession isn't "a significant period of time". My original thoughts were that if the US economy was shrinking while they also had inflation, then the Federal Reserve would be more likely to worry about stimulating the economy instead of controlling the inflation, and that this would over time resolve the housing bubble problem as worldwide over-priced houses will be inflated away. I still hold that this prediction could eventuate, with the foundations for it building up currently. On number 11, I note that the album 'This Is It' is currently number one in the charts. See the following article: <a href="http://www.rollingstone.com/rockdaily/index.php/2009/11/04/on-the-charts-michael-jackson-hits-number-one-with-this-is-it/" rel="nofollow">Michael Jackson hits number one with 'This Is It</a>. The prediction was just that Michael Jackson would return with an album bigger than Thriller. It was never stated that this required him to still be alive. I think this prediction is still in play :-) I don’t think we can conclude that the stagflation prediction has been successful. I’ve investigated the Wikipedia definition of stagflation: “Stagflation is an economic situation in which inflation and economic stagnation occur simultaneously and remain unchecked for a significant period of time.” I assume that the transitory inflation along with the recession isn’t “a significant period of time”. My original thoughts were that if the US economy was shrinking while they also had inflation, then the Federal Reserve would be more likely to worry about stimulating the economy instead of controlling the inflation, and that this would over time resolve the housing bubble problem as worldwide over-priced houses will be inflated away. I still hold that this prediction could eventuate, with the foundations for it building up currently.

On number 11, I note that the album ‘This Is It’ is currently number one in the charts. See the following article: Michael Jackson hits number one with ‘This Is It. The prediction was just that Michael Jackson would return with an album bigger than Thriller. It was never stated that this required him to still be alive. I think this prediction is still in play :-)

]]> Comment on predictions 2014 by gregnz http://gregnz.wordpress.com/2009/03/29/predictions-2014/#comment-277 gregnz Sat, 07 Nov 2009 21:25:10 +0000 http://gregnz.wordpress.com/?p=213#comment-277 Yes, I thought the period of stagflation would be more pronounced. I think I recall when Kelvin originally proposed a stagflation period, he was predicting that Chinese demands for commodities (especially oil) would increase inflation. Not sure we have seen too much evidence of that. Still, we have 4.5 years to go! Yes, I thought the period of stagflation would be more pronounced. I think I recall when Kelvin originally proposed a stagflation period, he was predicting that Chinese demands for commodities (especially oil) would increase inflation. Not sure we have seen too much evidence of that. Still, we have 4.5 years to go!

]]> Comment on predictions 2014 by Shane Legg http://gregnz.wordpress.com/2009/03/29/predictions-2014/#comment-275 Shane Legg Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:04:04 +0000 http://gregnz.wordpress.com/?p=213#comment-275 Number 2: The US has had a recession since Q4 2008 so we got that part right. Maybe slightly positive GDP growth now. What about inflation at the same time? Inflation was positive Q4 of 2008. Yay, stagflation, as we predicted. But... since then deflation rather than infaltion! So... a very generous interpretation would say that we were right. But, by a "period of stagflation" I think we all had more than a quarter in mind. True? Thus, overall, I'd say we got this one wrong... but we weren't too far off. Number 11: With MJ dead I think we can close this one :-) Number 2:

The US has had a recession since Q4 2008 so we got that part right. Maybe slightly positive GDP growth now. What about inflation at the same time? Inflation was positive Q4 of 2008. Yay, stagflation, as we predicted. But… since then deflation rather than infaltion!

So… a very generous interpretation would say that we were right. But, by a “period of stagflation” I think we all had more than a quarter in mind. True? Thus, overall, I’d say we got this one wrong… but we weren’t too far off.

Number 11:

With MJ dead I think we can close this one :-)

]]> Comment on kiva, entrepreneurship in the world by gregnz http://gregnz.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/kiva-entrepreneurship-in-the-world/#comment-273 gregnz Tue, 08 Sep 2009 22:23:46 +0000 http://gregnz.wordpress.com/?p=223#comment-273 Yeah, it is pretty cool. Especially when you get your money back, then just lend it again... Its like a savings account where you help people! Yeah, it is pretty cool. Especially when you get your money back, then just lend it again… Its like a savings account where you help people!

]]> Comment on kiva, entrepreneurship in the world by Rach http://gregnz.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/kiva-entrepreneurship-in-the-world/#comment-270 Rach Sun, 30 Aug 2009 01:35:25 +0000 http://gregnz.wordpress.com/?p=223#comment-270 hey Greg, thanks for alerting me to this! It's really, really cool. hey Greg, thanks for alerting me to this! It’s really, really cool.

]]> Comment on kiva, entrepreneurship in the world by gregnz http://gregnz.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/kiva-entrepreneurship-in-the-world/#comment-269 gregnz Sat, 08 Aug 2009 20:37:12 +0000 http://gregnz.wordpress.com/?p=223#comment-269 Really good actually. We lent $200 (I think... my memory's not what it was!), and they have paid back $120 so far. So we relent this to a woman in Uganda. I like it, because the money gets paid back, and doesnt just go into a savethechildren, world vision et al, black hole. Thats not to say we will stop donating to those places, because theyre more focussed on infrastructure, but I prefer the concept of raising standards of living through entrepreneurship. try it, its pretty cool :-) Really good actually. We lent $200 (I think… my memory’s not what it was!), and they have paid back $120 so far. So we relent this to a woman in Uganda.
I like it, because the money gets paid back, and doesnt just go into a savethechildren, world vision et al, black hole. Thats not to say we will stop donating
to those places, because theyre more focussed on infrastructure, but I prefer the concept of raising standards of living through entrepreneurship.

try it, its pretty cool :-)

]]> Comment on kiva, entrepreneurship in the world by Kerry http://gregnz.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/kiva-entrepreneurship-in-the-world/#comment-268 Kerry Fri, 07 Aug 2009 22:42:36 +0000 http://gregnz.wordpress.com/?p=223#comment-268 How has it turned out? How has it turned out?

]]> Comment on Amazon, the power of scale. by gregnz http://gregnz.wordpress.com/2009/07/17/amazon-the-power-of-scale/#comment-266 gregnz Fri, 17 Jul 2009 02:33:39 +0000 http://gregnz.wordpress.com/?p=243#comment-266 Yes, good point. In either case, the difference is still pretty significant. It still blows me away that amazon can deliver books for far cheaper in under 2 weeks. Perhaps their next move would be localised print-on-demand service, so everyone can get a book 24hours after they order it. In any case, amazon is an awesome service. Yes, good point. In either case, the difference is still pretty significant. It still blows me away that amazon can deliver books for far cheaper in under 2 weeks.

Perhaps their next move would be localised print-on-demand service, so everyone can get a book 24hours after they order it. In any case, amazon is an awesome service.

]]> Comment on Amazon, the power of scale. by Kelvin Hartnall http://gregnz.wordpress.com/2009/07/17/amazon-the-power-of-scale/#comment-265 Kelvin Hartnall Fri, 17 Jul 2009 01:56:34 +0000 http://gregnz.wordpress.com/?p=243#comment-265 In the comparison it is important to note a tax anomaly. Since the books you ordered from Amazon were below the threshold of $400 there is no GST applied by customs. However, the order from Fishpond will have GST applied. If GST was applied to the Amazon order it would increase it to $148.50. So still quite a bit cheaper, but worth noting that part of the saving is tax. In the comparison it is important to note a tax anomaly. Since the books you ordered from Amazon were below the threshold of $400 there is no GST applied by customs. However, the order from Fishpond will have GST applied. If GST was applied to the Amazon order it would increase it to $148.50. So still quite a bit cheaper, but worth noting that part of the saving is tax.

]]> Comment on Restaurant Brands CEO steps up by Kelvin Hartnall http://gregnz.wordpress.com/2009/07/03/restaurant-brands-ceo-steps-up/#comment-264 Kelvin Hartnall Fri, 17 Jul 2009 01:49:38 +0000 http://gregnz.wordpress.com/?p=241#comment-264 I completely agree. The thing that concerns me with Restaurant Brands is that they have a history of using acquisitions to destroy large amounts of wealth for share-holders. The purchase of Pizza-Hut Victoria is a classic example. While Pizza-Hut NZ was being out-flanked by Hell-Pizza in the premium market and Dominos in the budget market, they decided that they had developed a competency in Pizza Hut franchises and decided to expand into Australia. They removed their focus from NZ, lost significant market share to Hell Pizza and Dominos, while also destroying a large amount of wealth in Australia. So I agree, I am not reassured of their expertise and am concerned they may want to add additional brands. I think they need to focus on making sure they fully understand the first 11 ingredients before believing that they have a 12th. I completely agree. The thing that concerns me with Restaurant Brands is that they have a history of using acquisitions to destroy large amounts of wealth for share-holders. The purchase of Pizza-Hut Victoria is a classic example. While Pizza-Hut NZ was being out-flanked by Hell-Pizza in the premium market and Dominos in the budget market, they decided that they had developed a competency in Pizza Hut franchises and decided to expand into Australia. They removed their focus from NZ, lost significant market share to Hell Pizza and Dominos, while also destroying a large amount of wealth in Australia. So I agree, I am not reassured of their expertise and am concerned they may want to add additional brands. I think they need to focus on making sure they fully understand the first 11 ingredients before believing that they have a 12th.

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